OEF RESEARCH produces actionable, empirical research that speaks to how a world without war can be achieved.  Read more
Political Conflict

Why We Kill: Populism as a Path to Violence

October 12, 2017

Groups that have longstanding animosity are not bound to harm each other; they need populist leaders willing to fan the flames, who believe that encouraging violence against civilians will bring some benefit. Demagoguery is not inevitable. People of diverse nations, faiths, and political parties tolerate and even respect each other throughout the world.

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When Leaders are Silent: Aung San Suu Kyi, Coup Risks, and the Rohingya Crisis

The Myanmar military brutally attacked Rohingya civilians. Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and leader of Myanmar, didn’t condemn the attack. Why not? Social science has answers.
Nobel Peace Prize in Tunisia

On the Brink of Civil War, Tunisians Averted Crisis. How They Did It and Why It Matters.

Everything should be going wrong in Tunisia. In 2011, the Arab Spring revolutions engulfed half of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with the promise of democratization. But these revolutions failed to secure democracy. Tunisia is the stand-out; it has avoided all-out civil war like that in Syria and has not slipped back into an authoritarian regime as Egypt has. It has also managed to pass a new constitution, peacefully elect a new president (more than once), and win a Nobel Peace Prize along the way. There are powerful lessons here.

Featured Activity

Forecasting Coup


The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.  Read more.


Terrorist Social Services Data Set

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS)

TIOS gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

Irregular Elections Dataset

Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN)

REIGN describes political conditions in every country each and every month. The dataset is updated monthly to reflect the most recent political events and changes in leadership.  Read more.

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