OEF RESEARCH produces actionable, empirical research that speaks to how a world without war can be achieved.  Read more
Political Conflict

Legitimacy, Rationality, and the Danger of Social Media for Peaceful Societies

February 5, 2018

Legitimacy and trust in government are important for peace. But what happens when this trust erodes? People’s perceptions are not always based on rational criteria. We are ripe for manipulation regardless of what kind of political system we live under.

Read More

No Justice, No Peace: More than Just a Slogan?

Governing fairly is an essential element in creating peaceful societies. That’s what David Cortright, Conor Seyle, and Kristin Wall argue in their new book Governance for Peace. In peaceful societies, people rely on governance institutions to solve conflicts—they do not take up arms to fight their cause. Where people feel that government is just and where their voices are heard, they are less likely to rebel. But where governments are corrupt, or perceived as corrupt, the prospects for peace diminish.

Priorities after ISIS: Security and Services Provision

Restoring security in conflict-affected territories is the fundamental first step towards peacebuilding. But, according to Paul Collier, high degrees of military spending are actually counter-productive to achieving peace and are associated with a heightened risk of war renewal.

Featured Activity

Forecasting Coup


The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.  Read more.


Terrorist Social Services Data Set

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS)

TIOS gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

Irregular Elections Dataset

Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN)

REIGN describes political conditions in every country each and every month. The dataset is updated monthly to reflect the most recent political events and changes in leadership.  Read more.

OEF Research On Twitter