OEF RESEARCH produces actionable, empirical research that speaks to how a world without war can be achieved.  Read more
 
 
Conflict Trends & Forecasting, Political Conflict

Is There Really Evidence for a Decline of War?

May 8, 2018

Is the world becoming more peaceful? Recent decades have clearly been more peaceful than average. A number of people argue that this peaceful period is more than a temporary phenomenon and actually represents a consistent decline in war over the past two centuries. If so, we could reasonably expect that the recent peaceful period would continue and that wars might become even less frequent and less deadly.

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International Elections and Leaders: May 2018 Update

Five elections are expected to take place in the month of May, and we discuss the changes in international leadership in Armenia, Hungary, Costa Rica, Paraguay, and Azerbaijan which occured over the last month. 

Featured Activity

Forecasting Coup

CoupCast

The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.  Read more.


Datasets

Terrorist Social Services Data Set

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS)

TIOS gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

 

Terrorist Insurgent Dataset

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS) V2

TIOS V2 gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

 

Irregular Elections Dataset

Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN)

REIGN describes political conditions in every country each and every month. The dataset is updated monthly to reflect the most recent political events and changes in leadership.  Read more.

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