The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

Attempted Coup in Equatorial Guinea?

Corrupt control over Equatorial Guinea’s globally significant oil deposits by the ruling elite has been a defining feature of the politics in one of Africa’s wealthiest countries
Mugabe Loses Grip

The Region's Role in Shaping Post-Coup Zimbabwe

After 37 years Robert Mugabe has lost his grip on power. The military takeover appears to be their move to ensure their interests are protected in a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe
United Nations Peacekeeper in Africa

Will South Africa Come to the Rescue of Zimbabwe? Don’t Hold Your Breath

South Africa’s muddled role in championing good governance and peacekeeping on the continent holds little promise of being the beacon of light.