CoupCast

The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.


Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

Zimbabwe Democracy

The Zimbabwean Coup: Is There Hope for Democracy?

Coups are relatively rare now, but back in the 1960s and 1970s there were years when over a dozen coups occurred, mostly in Sub Saharan Africa. 
mugabe loses to military

Mugabe: An Unlikely End

The coup was precipitated by a succession struggle within the government.  It is believed that Mugabe was paving the way for his wife to take over. 
Zimbabwe Coup

Understanding Zimbabwe’s Coup

To understand the current crisis in Zimbabwe, one needs to understand the role of state-led violence and patronage as central to ensuring state legitimacy.

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