The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

Venezuelan protests 2017

When Might Venezuela Finally Break? Follow the Oil.

For insights on the future of the Maduro regime, look less at Venezuela’s chaotic politics and more at the nation’s oil production.
Ballots counted in Haiti

Will 2017 End Without a Single Coup Attempt?

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the future of international affairs in mid-2017. But here's one reason to be optimistic.

Curtis Bell Presents Forecasting Research at the United Nations

Dr. Curtis Bell presented the work being done by the OEF Research forecasting project at the United Nations on Wednesday March 7.