CoupCast

The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.


Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

International Elections and Leaders: May 2018 Update

Five elections are expected to take place in the month of May, and we discuss the changes in international leadership in Armenia, Hungary, Costa Rica, Paraguay, and Azerbaijan which occured over the last month. 

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