CoupCast

The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.


Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

Augusto Pinochet, dicatator of Chile, stepped down in 1990 after losing an election.

Violence and Votes: When Dictators Lose Elections

This is the third post in a five-part, weekly series on elections in dictatorships.
a man waves an Egyptian flag after the new election

Violence and Votes: Are Noncompetitive Elections in Dictatorships Worth the Risk?

This is the second post in a five-part, weekly series on elections in dictatorships.

Violence and Votes: Why Organize a Non-Competitive Election in Egypt?

In our first post in a new series on elections in dictatorships, we discuss the first presidential election to take place in Egypt for the first time since 2014 and the strategies of hosting elections, even noncompetitive ones, for dicatators by coup. 

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