CoupCast

The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.


Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

Forecasting election conflict at the State Department

OEF Forecasters Present at the U.S. State Department

Two members of the OEF Research forecasting team, Dr. Curtis Bell and Dr.
Arid soils in the Sahel - Photo by Pablo Tosco/Oxfam, Flicker, Creative Commons

Global Coup Risk Drops Slightly in January 2017

The risk of a coup attempt occurring somewhere in the world this month dropped to 17.6%, down from 17.9% in December. The primary cause of this drop is an empty election calendar.
Myanmar Democracy

Could Greed Derail Myanmar’s Democratic Transition?

For many, Myanmar’s evolving democratic transition spells the end of the military’s role in politics. But could the challenge reform poses to the junta’s entrenched economic interests affect the young democracy’s risk of coup?

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