CoupCast

The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.


Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

When Leaders are Silent: Aung San Suu Kyi, Coup Risks, and the Rohingya Crisis

The Myanmar military brutally attacked Rohingya civilians. Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and leader of Myanmar, didn’t condemn the attack. Why not? Social science has answers.
Ballots counted in Haiti

Will 2017 End Without a Single Coup Attempt?

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the future of international affairs in mid-2017. But here's one reason to be optimistic.

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