The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

Coups Attempts October

Did We Really See Four Coup Attempts in October?

There weren’t any coups in October, but many leaders used coup accusations to discredit their opponents and advance their political agendas.
Data forecasting political instability

Using Data to Predict Political Instability

OEF Research Associate Curtis Bell will participate in this year’s meeting of the Peace Science Society at the University of Notre Dame, where he will l