The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.
Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)
Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.
Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)