The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

Zimbabwe Coup

Understanding Zimbabwe’s Coup

To understand the current crisis in Zimbabwe, one needs to understand the role of state-led violence and patronage as central to ensuring state legitimacy.

When Leaders are Silent: Aung San Suu Kyi, Coup Risks, and the Rohingya Crisis

The Myanmar military brutally attacked Rohingya civilians. Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and leader of Myanmar, didn’t condemn the attack. Why not? Social science has answers.