Publication List

From comprehensive reports to discussion papers and briefs, OEF Research addresses the notion of peace through good governance by empirical research and analysis aimed at informing policymakers and inspiring change.

Improving Election Prediction Internationally

Written by Stefan Wojcik, Ryan Kennedy, David Lazer on February 3, 2017

Assumptions underlying election result predictions have been encountering wide criticism. This study, published in the journal Science, reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.

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Business can support Responsibility to Protect

How Business Can Support the Responsibility to Protect

Written by Conor Seyle on November 29, 2016

A major contribution to the prevention and cessation of mass atrocities was the development of the “Responsibility to Protect” as a formal commitment by United Nations member states. Known as  R2P, the principle affirmed member states’ commitment under international law to prevent and stop atrocities within their own borders and elsewhere.

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The Kenyan private sector's role in mass atrocity prevention, cessation, and recovery

Written by Victor Odundo Owuor, Patrick Obath on November 4, 2016

There are numerous examples of ways in which the business sector has been and continues to be involved in activities that lead to mass atrocity crimes.

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Business and R2P

The Role of Business in the Responsibility to Protect

Written by Conor Seyle, John J. Forrer on November 4, 2016

In 2005 the member states of the UN committed to preventing and stopping the mass atrocity crimes of genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity.  This commitment was formally called the “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P), and it clarified states' obligations under international law to stop and prevent these atrocities.&nb

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Advancing National Action Plans on Women, Peace, and Security

From Global Promise to National Action: Advancing Women, Peace, and Security in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Philippines, Serbia, and Sierra Leone

Written by Alexandra Amling, Marie O'Reilly on October 18, 2016

Evidence shows that women’s participation in peace and security processes is linked to a greater likelihood of successful outcomes, and international frameworks have sprung up accordingly. What is less understood is the role of national initiatives.

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Climate Change and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

What International Donors Should Know About Drought and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Written by Curtis Bell on September 29, 2016

Some argue that climate change effects pose one of the greatest risks for political violence, and others argue there is no relationship whatsoever. A new study shows that there is gray area between the two sides, and offers policy implications for international donors. 

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The Power of Networks in Maritime Security Report Cover

The Power of Networks in Maritime Security: What the Fight Against Piracy Can Teach Us About Irregular Migration

Written by Conor Seyle, Jens Vestergaard Madsen on September 16, 2016

Addressing the developing crisis around irregular migration by sea will require international institutions to work quickly to address the humanitarian, practical, and legal challenges posed by irregular migration.  Applying lessons learned from the effective international response to maritime piracy off the coast of Somalia may allow for internationa

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foreign policy analysis

Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Written by Curtis Bell, Patrick W. Keys on August 15, 2016

Few cross-national studies provide evidence of a relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict, although much of the literature claims that destabilizing effects of environmental crises can be mitigated by the right sociopolitical conditions.

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