Few cross-national studies provide evidence of a relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict, although much of the literature claims that destabilizing effects of environmental crises can be mitigated by the right sociopolitical conditions. The authors analyzed drought severity and civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa from 1962 to 2006 and uncovered some surprising results based on which and when sociopolitical conditions influenced the link between scarcity and conflict.
Three sociopolitical conditions influence the link between environmental scarcity and civil conflict: social vulnerability, state capacity, and unequal distribution of resources.
Drought does not increase risk of conflict in states thought to be especially vulnerable to scarcity.
States with sociopolitical conditions that would favor peace are no less likely to suffer conflict during severe drought than other states.
Environmental scarcity is more likely to increase conflict risk where populations have more to lose in comparison to times of more favorable climate conditions.
This article explains coup activity in democracies by adapting insights from the literature on commitment problems and framing coup around the threats leaders and potential coup plotters pose to each other.
Is a world without war possible in the 21st century?Trends in armed conflict and a developing body of social scientific research suggest that this idea is plausible.Based on a discussion of high-level experts held in 2014, this report reviews the
When rebels provide social services, do they have more leverage negotiating the terms of a peace deal? The literature suggests service-providing groups may, on average, have a wider base of support and a more centralized organizational structure.
Written byConor Seyle, Jens Vestergaard Madsenon August 27, 2015
As part of an ongoing lessons-learned project based on Oceans Beyond Piracy’s work with the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia, OEF Research is documenting the potential role of non-state actors in maritime security.