Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years. The implications of this pattern, sometimes called “the Long Peace,” remain highly controversial. Is this an enduring trend toward peace? Or is it temporary, representing a fluctuation within an otherwise stable system of conflict? Answering this question has remained difficult because of substantial evidence supporting both perspectives and the enormously variable nature of war. Here, advanced statistical methods are employed to examine the hypothesis of there being a trend toward peace.
These analyses suggest that the decline in war is consistent with a stable conflict generation process.
Written byLindsay Heger, Danielle Jung, Wendy H. Wongon November 15, 2012
How does the way in which a group organizes change the lethality of the group's attacks? In this article, we argue that groups organized vertically as hierarchies are likely to conduct more lethal attacks.