We cannot eliminate the root causes of political violence without policies based on evidence and attention to long-term consequences. To this end, OEF Research develops and promotes innovative quantitative tools to infer the causes of political events, predict them in advance, and evaluate how decisions made in the short-term are likely to affect peace and governance in the future. CoupCast is OEF Research's flagship forecasting model, which uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.
Written byCurtis Bell, Patrick W. Keyson August 15, 2016
Few cross-national studies provide evidence of a relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict, although much of the literature claims that destabilizing effects of environmental crises can be mitigated by the right sociopolitical
This article explains coup activity in democracies by adapting insights from the literature on commitment problems and framing coup around the threats leaders and potential coup plotters pose to each other.