We cannot eliminate the root causes of political violence without policies based on evidence and attention to long-term consequences. To this end, OEF Research develops and promotes innovative quantitative tools to infer the causes of political events, predict them in advance, and evaluate how decisions made in the short-term are likely to affect peace and governance in the future. CoupCast is OEF Research's flagship forecasting model, which uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.
Conflict Trends & Forecasting
Latest News
Violence and Votes: Do Coups Follow Coups?
International Elections and Leaders: March 2018 Update
Mugabe: An Unlikely End
When Might Venezuela Finally Break? Follow the Oil.
Will 2017 End Without a Single Coup Attempt?
Curtis Bell Presents Forecasting Research at the United Nations
International Elections and Leaders: March 2017 Update
OEF Forecasters Present at the U.S. State Department
REIGN Dataset: February 2017 Updates
Global Coup Risk Drops Slightly in January 2017
The Data Behind the Decline in Female Heads of Government
REIGN Dataset: January 2017 Updates
REIGN Dataset: December 2016 Updates
Could Greed Derail Myanmar’s Democratic Transition?
Did We Really See Four Coup Attempts in October?
REIGN Dataset: November 2016 Updates
What is a Coup d’État?
Using Data to Predict Political Instability
Turkey’s Repression Could Spread to Its Neighbors
Turkey's Coup Attempt Was a Surprise, but for Surprising Reasons
Key Contributors
Related Publications
Improving Election Prediction Internationally
Ryan Kennedy, David Lazer, Stefan Wojcik Written by on February 3, 2017Assumptions underlying election result predictions have been encountering wide criticism.
Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Written by on August 15, 2016Few cross-national studies provide evidence of a relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict, although much of the literature claims that destabilizing effects of environmental crises can be mitigated by the right sociopolitical
Coup d’État and Democracy
Written by on February 19, 2016This article explains coup activity in democracies by adapting insights from the literature on commitment problems and framing coup around the threats leaders and potential coup plotters pose to each other.
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