OEF RESEARCH produces actionable, empirical research that speaks to how a world without war can be achieved.  Read more
 
 
Political Forecasting, Political Conflict

Reassessing Rebellion

March 15, 2019

Though historically the number of armed conflicts has been declining, there has been a recent surge in ongoing civil wars. Intrastate armed conflicts therefore represent a persistent and dangerous threat to global stability. Breaking from past studies, our report examines recent trends in civil war dynamics.

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comoros election 2019

International Elections and Leaders: April 2019 Update

Five elections to determine the new executive occurred in March. In Africa, Comoros concluded its presidential election on March 24th. Incumbent Azali Assoumani was declared the winner after receiving 60.7 percent of the vote, enough to avoid a runoff round. The election was controversial for several reasons.
OEFR reorganization

OEFR Reorganization

After a strategic review in 2018, OEFR is restructuring to focus on four key issue areas of business and governance, good governance, political conflict, and forecasting. The gender and security and conflict trends tracks are being folded into our political conflict research track.
Peace is Ours: Experineces of Peace and Reconciliation in Colombia

Peace is Ours: A Story of Peace and Reconciliation in Colombia

Peace is Ours is the story of a young couple, Ximena and Jair, who attempt to build their lives in the shadow of the Colombian peace process in 2016.

Featured Activity

Forecasting Coup

CoupCast

The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.  Read more.


Datasets

Terrorist Social Services Data Set

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS)

TIOS gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

 

Terrorist Insurgent Dataset

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS) V2

TIOS V2 gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

 

Irregular Elections Dataset

Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN)

REIGN describes political conditions in every country each and every month. The dataset is updated monthly to reflect the most recent political events and changes in leadership.  Read more.

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