OEF RESEARCH produces actionable, empirical research that speaks to how a world without war can be achieved.  Read more
 
 
social media fragile states

Unpacking Social Media Use in Stabilization Efforts

July 1, 2019

The growing discomfort with how large social media platforms can be a tool for fueling real-world violence and empowering autocratic behavior often masks an equally important narrative: social media can be a source of good, especially in fragile states.

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Report Cover for Risk of Coup 2019

Annual Risk of Coup Report - 2019

Provides an in-depth global and regional look at the likelihood of coup events for 2019 based on a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis of specific coup-prone states. Our forecast and
comoros election 2019

International Elections and Leaders: April 2019 Update

Five elections to determine the new executive occurred in March. In Africa, Comoros concluded its presidential election on March 24th. Incumbent Azali Assoumani was declared the winner after receiving 60.7 percent of the vote, enough to avoid a runoff round.

Featured Activity

Forecasting Coup

CoupCast

The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.  Read more.


Datasets

Terrorist Social Services Data Set

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS)

TIOS gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

 

Terrorist Insurgent Dataset

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS) V2

TIOS V2 gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

 

Irregular Elections Dataset

Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN)

REIGN describes political conditions in every country each and every month. The dataset is updated monthly to reflect the most recent political events and changes in leadership.  Read more.

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