Elections can serve a catalyst for coups and other forms of political violence. Take a look at OEF Research’s CoupCast for continued, in-depth analysis of the drivers of coup risk around the world.
CoupCast uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.
Forecasted coup risk - . . .
Highest Liklihood of a Coup: Calculating ...
Coup Risk Over Time
Agg Year List (Y)
Top 5 for month
Monthly Risk (X)
Top 5 for year
Year Risk (X)
This is the fourth post in a five-part, weekly series on elections in dictatorships. Visit our CoupCast site for information about our REIGN database and previous commentary on coups d’état.