The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, the CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. The forecast is updated monthly and is accompanied by articles highlighting key insights learned by analyzing the data generated by the CoupCast. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (Map)

Rollover or click on any regions of interest for more detailed coup information.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup Attempt this Month (List)

Coupcast News

Curtis Bell Presents Forecasting Research at the United Nations

Dr. Curtis Bell presented the work being done by the OEF Research forecasting project at the United Nations on Wednesday March 7.
Arid soils in the Sahel - Photo by Pablo Tosco/Oxfam, Flicker, Creative Commons

Global Coup Risk Drops Slightly in January 2017

The risk of a coup attempt occurring somewhere in the world this month dropped to 17.6%, down from 17.9% in December. The primary cause of this drop is an empty election calendar.