Drawing on data from One Earth Future’s Shuraako program, this report assesses the relationship between direct funding, proximity to violence, and proximity to international funding on the income of businesses in Somalia.
There is a strong and direct relationship between an act of violence and reported loss of income in nearby businesses, with businesses showing a 2.2%-41% decline in revenue during the month an attack happens.
Proximity to large-scale international development aid does not have a detectable effect on businesses in the sample.
The strongest predictor of firm revenue, when controlling for business characteristics, is access to capital as measured by loan size provided. Firms which received more loan income show significantly more revenue.
Policy Recommendations Include:
Underscoring the need for international development practitioners to provide access to capital for firms - even in fragile or conflict-affected states.
The impact of armed conflict is felt quickly and severely, and any reduction at all in the number of attacks or their centrality to concentrated businesses will be an economic benefit.
In an increasingly networked and digital world in which millions of transactions are recorded daily, the potential of data tampering in centralized ledgers that are the primary depository of these records can not be overemphasized.
The growing discomfort with how large social media platforms can be a tool for fueling real-world violence and empowering autocratic behavior often masks an equally important narrative: social media can be a source of good, especially in fragile
The fact-sheet is a continuation of the OEFR Business & Governance project’s series on disruptive technologies and fragile states. The global market for unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) or “drones” has grown rapidly in last few years.
This report, based on field research, documents which features of business work in fragile areas and how businesses operate in regard to strategy, contract enforcement, and other aspects of firm behavior.