This discussion paper analyzes the structural and causal factors that led to the collapse of Mozambique’s landmark 1992 General Peace Agreement in October 2013 and why they matter for the country’s future stability.
The recent and unexpected death of Afonso Dhlakama, leader of Mozambique’s largest opposition political party the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), amidst advanced discussions to secure a new peace agreement raises the level of uncertainty that a successful peace agreement can be renegotiated. Efforts should be undertaken to speedily conclude a peace agreement with his interim successor, Ossufo Momade, to ensure political stability before the October 2019 general elections.
A concerted effort is needed to reintegrate the roughly 800 Renamo ex-combatants into social and economic development programs, including the national military.
The failure to decentralize political power and enfranchise Renamo in a ruling coalition government—a longstanding grievance—played a significant role in the dissolution of the peace agreement and the re-emergence of armed conflict. If left unresolved, the issue of political decentralization will remain a site of contention and a catalyst for future conflict.
Part of the decentralization debate concerns the adequate provision of social and economic services to rural and marginalized territories. Included in this is the need for greater transparency in natural resource–related project concession negotiations and development.
This article explains coup activity in democracies by adapting insights from the literature on commitment problems and framing coup around the threats leaders and potential coup plotters pose to each other.
Is a world without war possible in the 21st century?Trends in armed conflict and a developing body of social scientific research suggest that this idea is plausible.Based on a discussion of high-level experts held in 2014, this report reviews the
Written byDanielle F. Jung, Lindsay Hegeron September 29, 2015
When rebels provide social services, do they have more leverage negotiating the terms of a peace deal? The literature suggests service-providing groups may, on average, have a wider base of support and a more centralized organizational structure.