Threat of World War
Political Conflict

THE ENDURING THREAT OF A LARGE INTERSTATE WAR

Author(s): Aaron Clauset
Date: September 20, 2017
Publication Type: Discussion Paper
Research Topics: Political Conflict

Overview:

Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years. The implications of this pattern, sometimes called “the Long Peace,” remain highly controversial. Is this an enduring trend toward peace? Or is it temporary, representing a fluctuation within an otherwise stable system of conflict? Answering this question has remained difficult because of substantial evidence supporting both perspectives and the enormously variable nature of war. Here, advanced statistical methods are employed to examine the hypothesis of there being a trend toward peace. 

Key Findings:

These analyses suggest that the decline in war is consistent with a stable conflict generation process.


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