Assumptions underlying election result predictions have been encountering wide criticism. This study, published in the journal Science, reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data. The authors analyzed a variety of potential predictors theorized to be of importance, ranging from economic performance to polling data.They developed prediction models with an election data set of 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds. They participated in two live forecasting experiments.
Elections were about 80 to 90% predictable, despite uncertainties with available data.
Polling data were very important to successful prediction, although it was necessary to correct for systematic biases.
Unexpectedly, economic indicators were only weakly predictive.
As data sources improve and grow, predictive power is expected to increase.
In an increasingly networked and digital world in which millions of transactions are recorded daily, the potential of data tampering in centralized ledgers that are the primary depository of these records can not be overemphasized.
Written byJay Benson, Joshua Lambert, Eric Keelson March 15, 2019
Though historically the number of armed conflicts has been declining, there has been a recent surge in ongoing civil wars. Intrastate armed conflicts therefore represent a persistent and dangerous threat to global stability.
Written byConor Seyle, Global Alliance for Reporting Progress on Promoting Peaceful, Just, and Inclusive Societieson March 1, 2018
In Sustainable Development Goal 16, UN member states committed themselves to tracking and releasing information about the closely related issues of peace, justice, inclusion, and good governance. Collecting good data about these issues is difficult
Governance systems that contribute to stable peace are characterized by having inclusive means of operating, participatory systems that bring the governed into the process of decision making, systems for accountability that ensure transparent and
Written byConor Seyle, Jens Vestergaard Madsenon September 16, 2016
Addressing the developing crisis around irregular migration by sea will require international institutions to work quickly to address the humanitarian, practical, and legal challenges posed by irregular migration. Applying lessons learned from the