CoupCast

The CoupCast project, directed by Dr. Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in every country each month. The model learns from past coup activity to identify the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the chances of a coup. We update the forecast every month and regularly write short articles to highlight some of the more interesting insights generated by the CoupCast model. All of our data are open-source, unclassified, and available for free using the Dataset link below.

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup this Month (Map)

 

 

Countries at Highest Risk of a Coup this Month (List)

 

Latest News



Related Publications

2019 Report on Risk of Coup

Annual Risk of Coup Report - 2019

Written by Matthew Frank, Jay Benson, Clayton Besaw, Jonathan Powell on April 26, 2019

The goals of this first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report are two-fold.

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