Political Forecasting

We cannot eliminate the root causes of political violence without policies based on evidence and attention to long-term consequences. To this end, OEF Research develops and promotes innovative quantitative tools to infer the causes of political events, predict them in advance, and evaluate how decisions made in the short-term are likely to affect peace and governance in the future. CoupCast is OEF Research's flagship political forecasting model, which uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.

Latest News


Key Contributors

Clayton Besaw
Data Scientist / Researcher
Matthew Frank
Research Assistant

Related Publications

2019 Report on Risk of Coup

Annual Risk of Coup Report - 2019

Written by Matthew Frank, Jay Benson, Clayton Besaw, John Filitz, Jonathan Powell on April 26, 2019

The goals of this first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report are two-fold.

Read more
Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics

Reassessing Rebellion

Written by Jay Benson, John Filitz, Eric Keels, Joshua Lambert on March 15, 2019

Though historically the number of armed conflicts has been declining, there has been a recent surge in ongoing civil wars. Intrastate armed conflicts therefore represent a persistent and dangerous threat to global stability.

Read more

Improving Election Prediction Internationally

Ryan Kennedy, David Lazer, Stefan Wojcik Written by Ryan Kennedy, David Lazer, Stefan Wojcik on February 3, 2017

Assumptions underlying election result predictions have been encountering wide criticism.

Read more
foreign policy analysis

Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Patrick W. Keys Written by Patrick W. Keys on August 15, 2016

Few cross-national studies provide evidence of a relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict, although much of the literature claims that destabilizing effects of environmental crises can be mitigated by the right sociopolitical

Read more
Democracy and Coup d’État

Coup d’État and Democracy

Written by , on February 19, 2016

This article explains coup activity in democracies by adapting insights from the literature on commitment problems and framing coup around the threats leaders and potential coup plotters pose to each other.

Read more