Conflict Trends & Forecasting

We cannot eliminate the root causes of political violence without policies based on evidence and attention to long-term consequences. To this end, OEF Research develops and promotes innovative quantitative tools to infer the causes of political events, predict them in advance, and evaluate how decisions made in the short-term are likely to affect peace and governance in the future. CoupCast is OEF Research's flagship forecasting model, which uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.

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Key Contributors

Curtis Bell
Associate Director
Clayton Besaw
Data Scientist / Researcher
Kelsey Soeth
Research Assistant

Related Publications

Improving Election Prediction Internationally

Ryan Kennedy, David Lazer, Stefan Wojcik Written by Ryan Kennedy, David Lazer, Stefan Wojcik on February 3, 2017

Assumptions underlying election result predictions have been encountering wide criticism.

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foreign policy analysis

Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Written by Curtis Bell, Patrick W. Keys on August 15, 2016

Few cross-national studies provide evidence of a relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict, although much of the literature claims that destabilizing effects of environmental crises can be mitigated by the right sociopolitical

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Democracy and Coup d’État

Coup d’État and Democracy

Written by Curtis Bell on February 19, 2016

This article explains coup activity in democracies by adapting insights from the literature on commitment problems and framing coup around the threats leaders and potential coup plotters pose to each other.

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